SpaceX's $194 billion share unlock exposes a major risk in Aave's tokenized stock ambitions

Aave Labs is currently evaluating a proposal to accept tokenized SpaceX shares (SPCXc) as collateral on its V4 Equities Hub on the Base blockchain. The risk assessment process, conducted by LlamaRisk, faced complications after an accelerated share unlock event involving 1.3 billion SpaceX shares worth approximately $194.3 billion. This event occurred two weeks earlier than initially modeled, forcing a re-evaluation of the collateral risk parameters. LlamaRisk has proposed a conservative 55% collateral factor and a 37,000 SPCXc borrowing cap to mitigate risks associated with thin on-chain liquidity and high asset volatility. The proposal highlights the complexities of integrating traditional equity markets with decentralized finance, particularly regarding liquidity depth and the mismatch between 24/7 blockchain operations and traditional market trading hours. While Citi Research views Aave as a potential collateral-mobility layer, the case underscores that tokenization does not inherently solve underlying liquidity or fundamental market risks. The governance process remains ongoing, with the final decision contingent on how the market absorbs the significant increase in tradable SpaceX shares.