Morgan Stanley projects tokenized assets market could hit $10T by 2030

Morgan Stanley has significantly revised its outlook for the tokenized real-world asset (RWA) market, projecting a valuation between $3 trillion and $10 trillion by 2030. This updated forecast, shared by Head of Digital Asset Strategy Amy Oldenburg at TOKEN2049, surpasses the firm's previous $2.3 trillion base-case estimate released just one month prior. While the current RWA market is valued at approximately $38.6-$40 billion, with tokenized U.S. Treasuries accounting for $14.6 billion, the bank anticipates massive growth driven by institutional adoption. Morgan Stanley identifies private shares, structured notes, and investment funds as primary drivers for future efficiency gains. Despite this long-term optimism, the firm has delayed the launch of tokenized equity support on its alternative trading system (ATS) from late 2026 to Q1 2027. Oldenburg cited a need for increased institutional demand and a broader range of tokenized offerings before fully committing to the platform's expansion. This shift highlights the tension between aggressive market growth projections and the practical, incremental pace of institutional infrastructure development.