ESMA flags tokenized stock fragmentation, prediction market risks

The European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) released its H1 2026 report highlighting significant risks associated with the rapid growth of tokenized equities. The regulator observed that the market for 'wrapped' tokenized stocks, which are 1-for-1 backed by underlying assets, has surged from €300 million to nearly €1.9 billion over the past 18 months. ESMA expressed concern that issuing multiple tokenized versions of the same stock could lead to liquidity fragmentation across the ecosystem. While acknowledging potential benefits like programmability and expanded access, the report argues that current structures often fail to deliver true atomic settlement because cash legs frequently settle off-chain. Furthermore, the reliance on off-chain ownership records prevents a single on-chain source of truth, complicating self-custody. Major issuers like xStocks, Ondo Global Markets, and Robinhood are noted for their EU prospectus filings, suggesting a significant European footprint. This analysis underscores the regulatory skepticism regarding whether current tokenization models provide genuine efficiency gains over traditional financial infrastructure. The report serves as a critical signal that European regulators are closely scrutinizing the operational risks inherent in current RWA tokenization practices.