CLARITY Act Faces Tougher Odds as Galaxy Research Downgrades 2026 Passage to 50%

The CLARITY Act, a significant cryptocurrency market structure bill, faces increasing legislative uncertainty as Galaxy Research has downgraded its probability of 2026 passage from 60% to 50%. Despite securing bipartisan approval from the Senate Banking Committee with a 15-9 vote on May 14, the bill is currently stalled at position 423 on the Senate legislative calendar. Alex Thorn of Galaxy Research cites a tightening Senate schedule and unresolved ethics provisions as primary hurdles to the bill's advancement. Urgent legislative priorities, such as the reauthorization of Section 702 of FISA, are consuming limited floor time, leaving little room for crypto-specific debate before the August recess. Furthermore, the bill requires 60 votes for passage, yet faces opposition from Senators Josh Hawley and Rand Paul, necessitating strong Democratic support that remains unconfirmed. Senate Majority Leader John Thune must now prioritize the bill in early July to avoid the legislative bottlenecks associated with the upcoming midterm election cycle. This delay is critical for the RWA market, as the CLARITY Act is intended to provide the regulatory framework necessary for institutional adoption and the legal certainty required for large-scale asset tokenization. Without a consolidated legislative package and resolved ethics concerns, the window for meaningful progress is rapidly closing.